Remember, teams can't be seeded ahead of another team it finished behind in the district standings (if teams are tied for second place and below, the NMAA can put teams in any order despite tiebreaker procedures used for placement for district tournament). All records taken from the NMAA's website.
1. Las Cruces (21-4, District 3-5A champ)
2. Albuquerque High (21-3, District 5-5A champ)
3. Cibola (20-4, District 1-5A champ)
4. Eldorado (18-7, District 2-5A champ)
5. La Cueva (20-5, 2nd in 2-5A)
6. Hobbs (19-7, District 4-5A champ)
7. Clovis (14-9, 2nd in 4-5A)
8. Volcano Vista (15-10, 2nd in 1-5A)
9. Manzano (15-10, T-3rd in 2-5A)
10. West Mesa (16-8, 2nd in 5-5A)
11. Sandia (13-12, T-3rd in 2-5A)
12. Valley (12-12, 3rd in 5-5A)
13. Mayfield (14-12, 2nd in 3-5A)
14. Highland (9-16, T-4th in 5-5A)
15. Oñate (11-15, 3rd in 3-5A)
Like I said before, this is how I see the NMAA seeding the state tournament. The top two spots are pretty easy with Las Cruces being No. 1 all season in the polls and giving the NMAA no reasons to move it out of that spot when selection Sunday comes. Albuquerque High benefits from La Cueva stumbling twice to Eldorado and moves up to the No. 2 spot.
At No. 3, I think the NMAA will put Cibola there with a 20-4 record and a win over Eldorado in the last month, though it needed a half-court shot at the buzzer of regulation against Volcano Vista in the district tiebreaker to send the game to overtime before winning in the extra period.
At the No. 4 and No. 5 spots I put the two teams from District 2-5A. Like I said in a previous post, Eldorado is that team people are looking for any reason to move up in the polls, seedings or whatever because of its talent level and I think a pair of wins over La Cueva will do that. I put La Cueva at No. 5 because I don't think those losses are enough for people in Albuquerque to move the Bears behind Hobbs.
Therefore, that's why I have Hobbs at No. 6 despite winning eight games in a row, and if it can win the district championship Saturday at home, will be one of the hottest teams in the state. A lot of the time tradition may help Hobbs, but I think with such a sub-par season last year many are still wondering (particularly those who haven't watched the Eagles this season as they didn't make a trip to the Albuquerque metro area this season) if Hobbs is for real. Don't be too upset Hobbs fans, the No. 6 seed would put the Eagles opposite of Las Cruces, Eldorado and La Cueva according to my projection of the bracket and it wouldn't face any of those team until the state championship.
I put Clovis at No. 7 and Volcano Vista at No. 8 as the last two teams to receive home games in the first round but those teams could be in either order. Clovis is much more dangerous of the two but with Volcano Vista making a late push, it could leap Clovis - particularly if it beats Cibola in the district tournament championship (which I think would move Eldorado ahead of Cibola for the No. 3 spot and maybe move Cibola down as far as No. 5 or No. 6).
So for first-round matchups I have: Rio Grande at Las Cruces, Oñate at Albuquerque High, Highland at Cibola, Mayfield at Eldorado, Valley at La Cueva, Sandia at Hobbs, West Mesa at Clovis and Manzano at Volcano Vista.
The NMAA will release its seedings Sunday. As soon as I get a hold of them, I will post them to my blog here and give you my thoughts.
