These are my latest projections two weeks prior to when the NMAA releases the final state seedings on Feb. 26. I did my best to look at each team's schedule, head-to-head matchups and so on to see where each team would be seeded if the state playoffs started today. I didn't take into account district finish just yet with still a week left of district play (a team can't be seeded above a team it finished behind in district play). Also remember there is some adjustments in the back end to ensure teams in the same district don't face each other (i.e. I had Oñate as the last team in, but switched it with Highland because the Knights can't face No. 1 Las Cruces in the first round). All records (except for Hobbs because I know it is 18-7) were taken from the NMAA's website.
1. Las Cruces (19-4, 7-0 District 3-5A)
2. La Cueva (19-3, 4-0 District 2-5A)
3. Albuquerque High (19-3, 6-0 District 5-5A)
4. Cibola (17-4, 3-1 District 1-5A)
5. Hobbs (18-7, 3-0 District 4-5A)
6. Clovis (13-8, 1-1 District 4-5A)
7. Eldorado (15-7, 3-1 District 2-5A)
8. Sandia (13-10, 1-3 District 2-5A)
9. Volcano Vista (13-9, 3-1 District 1-5A)
10. Mayfield (12-11, 4-2 District 3-5A)
11. Manzano (13-9, 0-3 District 2-5A)
12. West Mesa (15-7, 4-2 District 5-5A)
13. Valley (10-11, 2-3 District 5-5A)
14. Rio Rancho (11-13, 1-3 District 1-5A)
15. Oñate (9-14, 3-3 District 3-5A)
16. Highland (9-14, 2-5 District 5-5A)
There is still plenty to be determined in this last week of district play (remember, the district tournaments follow next week). If you're a Hobbs fan, there is still a realistic hope for the Eagles to get as high as a No. 3 seed in the state tournament in my eyes if the Eagles win out (which means at the minimum of beating Clovis two more times - Friday and in the district tournament).
Las Cruces or Albuquerque High are not likely to lose before the end of the season as I don't see a team in either of their respective districts beating them so Las Cruces will likely be No. 1 and Albuquerque High will be a No. 2 or No. 3.
However, La Cueva still plays Eldorado again this week with Eldorado just a game back in District 2-5A and Cibola is tied with Volcano Vista (which I have ninth) for first place in District 1-5A. If Eldorado ends up taking the district over La Cueva and Volcano Vista (which Hobbs beat by 23 points at the Hobbs Holiday Tournament) wins district over Cibola, there is a CHANCE Hobbs moves up to No. 3. Don't be surprised, however, if Eldorado jumps Hobbs (even if it wins out) by winning District 2-5A – regarded as the toughest district in the state.
