Sunday, February 12, 2012

My Feb. 12 projected Class 5A boys state tournament seeding

  These are my latest projections two weeks prior to when the NMAA releases the final state seedings on Feb. 26. I did my best to look at each team's schedule, head-to-head matchups and so on to see where each team would be seeded if the state playoffs started today. I didn't take into account district finish just yet with still a week left of district play (a team can't be seeded above a team it finished behind in district play). Also remember there is some adjustments in the back end to ensure teams in the same district don't face each other (i.e. I had Oñate as the last team in, but switched it with Highland because the Knights can't face No. 1 Las Cruces in the first round). All records (except for Hobbs because I know it is 18-7) were taken from the NMAA's website.

1. Las Cruces (19-4, 7-0 District 3-5A)
2. La Cueva (19-3, 4-0 District 2-5A)
3. Albuquerque High (19-3, 6-0 District 5-5A)
4. Cibola (17-4, 3-1 District 1-5A)
5. Hobbs (18-7, 3-0 District 4-5A)
6. Clovis (13-8, 1-1 District 4-5A)
7. Eldorado (15-7, 3-1 District 2-5A)
8. Sandia (13-10, 1-3 District 2-5A)
9. Volcano Vista (13-9, 3-1 District 1-5A)
10. Mayfield (12-11, 4-2 District 3-5A)
11. Manzano (13-9, 0-3 District 2-5A)
12. West Mesa (15-7, 4-2 District 5-5A)
13. Valley (10-11, 2-3 District 5-5A)
14. Rio Rancho (11-13, 1-3 District 1-5A)
15. Oñate (9-14, 3-3 District 3-5A)
16. Highland (9-14, 2-5 District 5-5A)

  There is still plenty to be determined in this last week of district play (remember, the district tournaments follow next week). If you're a Hobbs fan, there is still a realistic hope for the Eagles to get as high as a No. 3 seed in the state tournament in my eyes if the Eagles win out (which means at the minimum of beating Clovis two more times - Friday and in the district tournament).
  Las Cruces or Albuquerque High are not likely to lose before the end of the season as I don't see a team in either of their respective districts beating them so Las Cruces will likely be No. 1 and Albuquerque High will be a No. 2 or No. 3.
  However, La Cueva still plays Eldorado again this week with Eldorado just a game back in District 2-5A and Cibola is tied with Volcano Vista (which I have ninth) for first place in District 1-5A. If Eldorado ends up taking the district over La Cueva and Volcano Vista (which Hobbs beat by 23 points at the Hobbs Holiday Tournament) wins district over Cibola, there is a CHANCE Hobbs moves up to No. 3. Don't be surprised, however, if Eldorado jumps Hobbs (even if it wins out) by winning District 2-5A – regarded as the toughest district in the state.